Future Price of PPC?

[Excelsior]

I know it can be a silly exercise to ask people to speculate on the future price of something, but I thought it might be interesting to get some educated views on ppc's future (and not just people throwing out hopeful numbers).

Does anyone with experience in currencies/stocks/markets have somewhat of an opinion of where they think ppc is headed in the near and far term? And if so, what reasoning do they base their forecasts on?

Thanks to all who participate.

[MeBeingAwesome]

It's almost impossible to say, and that's the fun part. Stock prices reflect the market's best guess as to the net future value of an asset, so on that basis, PPC's true worth is 0.00134000 BTC (up 5% last 24 hours!), or about $0.13 USD.

However, there are a couple of temporary factors that currently negatively influence the price.

First is the absence of true widespread liquidity; I would reasonably assume that 99%+ of the world has not heard of PPC. There will be a direct positive correlation between PPC awareness and its price, as demand begins to exceed supply.

Second is that there is really a very limited set of PPC for trade on exchanges. The coin supply is currently just under 19.5M PPC, but that number is deceiving. I would speculate that at least 10M of it is held by long-term investors who have zero intention of selling PPC anywhere near current price levels. I invested the money for fun, and won't be selling PPC for many years as a result, and I think many people hold similar views to me.

What does this mean? Any time PPC gets a short-term hit on popularity (a media article, a news report, a new vendor accepting PPC, a security issue with a competing cryptocurrency, etc.), price will spike in a very volatile way, because of the very limited supply. Right now prices have been stable the past couple weeks because demand is also low, but this can change in a hurry. We saw this in early April when PPC jumped to over 0.003/BTC.

For those two reasons, I expect the value of PPC to greatly increase over the next 10 years, as more widespread awareness increases the amount of consumers who wish to own PPC. People like Max Keiser target $100K per BTC in the future, which I think is overly ambitious, but I would not be surprised to see PPC at $500 five years from now.

To answer your question: I expect PPC to be worth about $2-5 a year from now (assuming proper marketing and no security issues), and worth either hundreds/thousands or zero 5+ years from now, depending on whether the market decides that PoS is the superior technology. It's a random walk down e-street.

[FuzzyBear]

I'm expecting a crash in all crypto currency value as ASIC hit the market then a progressive rise once the ASIC dust settles and people find their feet with electricity costs, hardware prices and speculation... as the markets take off again I expect PPC to be very similar to LTC over the last year.... I know I'll be pointing an ASIC at PPC for a while ... would love to organise a group buy for PPC ASIC as well..... but not sure how much support there would be for that

[craslovell]

I'm expecting a crash in all crypto currency value as ASIC hit the market then a progressive rise once the ASIC dust settles and people find their feet with electricity costs, hardware prices and speculation... as the markets take off again I expect PPC to be very similar to LTC over the last year.... I know I'll be pointing an ASIC at PPC for a while ... would love to organise a group buy for PPC ASIC as well..... but not sure how much support there would be for that

I'd be interested in hopping in on that. Only ASIC exposure I have so far is owning 1/4 share of an Avalon. Always looking to up my hashing power 

[mrbrt]

I'm expecting a crash in all crypto currency value as ASIC hit the market then a progressive rise once the ASIC dust settles and people find their feet with electricity costs, hardware prices and speculation... as the markets take off again I expect PPC to be very similar to LTC over the last year.... I know I'll be pointing an ASIC at PPC for a while ... would love to organise a group buy for PPC ASIC as well..... but not sure how much support there would be for that

I'd be interested in hopping in on that. Only ASIC exposure I have so far is owning 1/4 share of an Avalon. Always looking to up my hashing power 

I'd also be interested.

Fuzzy: Did you buy Avalon chips or are you waiting on a Avalon/BFL unit?

[FuzzyBear]

I have a group buy thread on the go here http://ppcointalk.org/index.php?topic=298.0 and by the looks of things it will go ahead one way or another

I have a BFL SC single on order from september 2012 which I still ... sigh.... waiting on, but news from BFL is slowly moving me up the queue

Regarding mining shares as investment, I am actually helping run the investment ASCMDVCPT listing on cryptostocks which is a devcoin passthrough on the ASICMiner Shares, main thread details http://devcointalk.org/index.php?topic=6.0

[calian]

Back on topic, do you guys think PPC will exceed its previous high on this leg up?

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=alltime&resolution=day&pair=ppc-btc&market=btc-e

[FuzzyBear]

hmm not sure ... this buy market kinda came out of nowhere in my books.... shows how good my books are for predicting these things.... but yeah I think PPC is stronger than it was back on the last highest value and a number of promising projects to capture peoples interest and see value in investment so no reason why not...

[agentme]

I'm expecting a crash in all crypto currency value as ASIC hit the market then a progressive rise once the ASIC dust settles and people find their feet with electricity costs, hardware prices and speculation... as the markets take off again I expect PPC to be very similar to LTC over the last year.... I know I'll be pointing an ASIC at PPC for a while ... would love to organise a group buy for PPC ASIC as well..... but not sure how much support there would be for that

I don't think the number of people using ASICs is significant compared to the number of people not involved with mining and just speculating on values, so I don't think mining being harder will be a direct factor in anything to the speculators. Maybe it would affect it if the ASIC owners were significantly more or less prone to dumping large amounts of coins on the market than past miners have been.

[hellscabane]

Hi all,

Just wanted to share some of my own analysis.



Looking at PPC-BTC trade, it looks like we hit the first major trough last month (during the first week of June) when we got to 0.001 PPC/BTC after what seems to be a three-wave trading window.

We then showed stable and healthy growth for about 3 weeks (going from 0.0011-0.00125, about 13.5% in those three weeks which is good to see after hitting the trough).  However, accelerated growth occurred again at the end of June causing a prolonged downward trend during the beginning of this month where it looks like we are heading into a three-wave trading window again.

I expect prices to stabilize at the end of July at around 0.0014-0.00145 before we resume growth, possibly hitting a stable 0.00175 at the end of August.



Looking at PPC-USD charts, we see an interesting correlation between PPC price and the volume traded per day (really, it's eerily close).  Looking at general velocity, it is possible if trading activity increases in the next few months, it is possible to have a new floor of $0.25 sometime in September.

Hope you found this interesting, and please let me know what you all think!

[hellscabane]

Just wanted to add an additional point based on my second chart (unfortunately, I can't place the analysis of this here).  Anyhow, if the proportion of daily trading approaches 20% of the PPCoin cap, (note, this doesn't mean that 20% of all coins have to be traded in a day, it could be like 1% of all coins being traded 20 times a day) we would hit the point where PPCoins are worth $1.00 each.  After a bit more analysis (and running a Projective Model Simulation), I keep getting that trading volume increases first and then price follows.  Oddly enough when going in the other direction, we have a price decrease then followed by decreased trading activity.  I'm still not exactly sure what to pull from this, but I just thought I'd share this information.

[matt608]

I think PPC will gradually invade LTC.  Its at about $0.30 now, that's only a hop skip and a jump away from $1.  The energy expenditure of bitcoin is only going to rise, so more and more journalists will mention it as a problem with bitcoin when they write about it, which will lead them to finding out about PPC.  Now that Atlantis has gone and Gox continues to fail us, LTC is no longer any better than the other alts.  Disenchanted LTC holders will gradually realise this and look for a better alt coin to invest in.  Once PPC reaches $1 it will get loads of attention, and the support LTC has had will move to PPC.

[Notanon]

Panic selling arising from LTC-Global shutting down couldn't have helped Litecoin, either. There are a handful of merchants who accept Litecoin, but nowhere near as many as Bitcoin.

That said, more merchants accepting Peercoin would help bump the price up, IMO.

[hellscabane]

So interestingly enough we are nearing the $0.50 mark that was hit during the first peak and the concurrent spike.  Not sure how much that has to do with the sudden velocity around PPC.  Once again, the question is whether this is sustainable...

[Alertness]

Panic selling arising from LTC-Global shutting down couldn't have helped Litecoin, either. There are a handful of merchants who accept Litecoin, but nowhere near as many as Bitcoin.

That said, more merchants accepting Peercoin would help bump the price up, IMO.

The problem is that there are hardly any PPC/USD exchanges. Merchants don't want to accept something they have to to trade twice before getting USD...it's like double the risk. Gox needs to add PPC. Bitstamp needs to add it. Coinbase needs to add it. Then it will be more easily adopted. But at this point, more and more strategic shadow investors are starting to take notice of PPC. and new exchanges are coming available.