PPCoinTalk - PeerCoin (PPC) & PrimeCoin (XPM)

PeerCoin (PPC) => Trading and exchanges => Topic started by: d5000 on May 27, 2013, 06:56:39 pm

Title: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on May 27, 2013, 06:56:39 pm
Hello Peercoiners,

welcome to the "Wall Observer" thread :) Thought it could be cool to have this here too ...

First some long/mid-term PPC/BTC charts:

All-Time chart at Vircurex (Since November 2012):

(http://imageshack.us/a/img35/6040/ppcalltimechart.png)

3 Month-Chart at Vircurex:
(http://imageshack.us/a/img189/8507/ppc3monthchart.png)

We can easily see that there was a turning point in early April 2013, when price rose from sub 0.001 levels to values betwen 0.001 and 0.003. Highest price at Vircurex was achieved at April 20, with 0.00329 BTC.

At BTC-E, PPC was introduced on April 6 (?). The price had a short bubble on the first days with values up to 0.00349, but then followed the price of Vircurex.

(http://imageshack.us/a/img4/7308/btcppcalltime.png)

Now a short-term (1-Month) chart (BTC-E):

(http://imageshack.us/a/img46/3825/btce1month.png)

Last month was bearish for PPC, compared to BTC. It went from values around 0.003 to the actual price of ~ 0.0014. Nearly all alt-coins (except Novacoin, which is a PPC fork) have lost value in the past weeks, though. Probably this could relate to the recent multiple new alt-coin announcements at Bitcointalk, which drove some interest away from the established altcoins.

Compared to USD, as I remember, the PPC drop was not so dramatic, although the fluctuations due to BTC volatility were high. Actual PPC/USD price at Vircurex is around 0,20 USD. Good moment to buy, I think.

Are there PPC/USD charts anywhere?

Order books:

BTC-E:
(http://imageshack.us/a/img713/4158/orderbookbtce.png)
Little buy wall at 0.00135 gives some support. No major ask walls. Up?

Vircurex:
(http://imageshack.us/a/img268/3839/orderbookvircurex.png)
Here, much lower volume and only a tiny 8 BTC "mini-wall" at 0.00135. Also here, no ask walls at all.

Vircurex PPC/USD (perhaps it will go away soon):
(http://imageshack.us/a/img29/375/orderbookvircurexusd.png)
No real volume. Nearly every day there are some trades though.


Feel free to post your charts, analytics, predictions, wall pics (do they exist?) and other stuff.


Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 28, 2013, 08:10:23 am
Thanks for getting this started. The wall observer conversation is my favorite so this actually convinced me to join the forum.

I've noticed the price weakness lately indicates a lack of new buyers but I've been watching the block reward expecting it to go up significantly as miners drop off due to low profitability (dustcoin shows we're at 75.91% of mining BTC) but so far it hasn't happened. It appears that PPC miners are either more committed to PPC than buyers, or they've set their miners and forgot about them. Either way it seems strange since with this level of discrepancy they could get more PPC by mining BTC and then buying them.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 28, 2013, 08:17:55 am
Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Although this is lower than it's been I still ascribe all but a couple hundred thousand of the price to rampant speculation. The reason more of this has been evaporating is partly because of the mushrooming number of altcoins showing the more competitive environment we're in and because I suspect PPC will be a very painful asset to hold during a downturn while it is still this small due to increasing block rewards with dropping hashing power. The stake rewards system caused me to call PPC the "rich get richer" coin but it appears that the compounding effect of downturns might make the opposite hold true as well?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 28, 2013, 09:23:34 am
Short-intermediate term I'm bearish but long term I think this comparison shows PPC's ace in the hole so long as Sunny stays active and hopefully gets some help:

Scroll down and look at the activity in github:

https://github.com/ppcoin/ppcoin/commits/master

https://github.com/litecoin-project/litecoin/commits/master

Litecoin should be embarrassed.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on May 28, 2013, 02:40:09 pm
Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator ("Fontas") tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again ;) But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental "buy" signal.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: romerun on May 28, 2013, 02:55:18 pm
Short-intermediate term I'm bearish but long term I think this comparison shows PPC's ace in the hole so long as Sunny stays active and hopefully gets some help:

Scroll down and look at the activity in github:

https://github.com/ppcoin/ppcoin/commits/master

https://github.com/litecoin-project/litecoin/commits/master

Litecoin should be embarrassed.

good point
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: D3tail on May 28, 2013, 10:46:13 pm
Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator ("Fontas") tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again ;) But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental "buy" signal.

This is one of the most accurate statements upon these forums.  I totally agree with you. 
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MeBeingAwesome on May 28, 2013, 11:25:37 pm
Very interesting thoughts!

I am not involved in mining so I have not much idea of the common practices there.

The little development activity in Litecoin really surprised me.

One thing I had noted is that the PPC supporters seem not to be very prone to pump-and-dump schemes (with the exception of the first BTC-E bubble). For example, in late April/early May a well-known altcoin speculator ("Fontas") tried to pump-and-dump PPC and had very limited success.

Price seems to have stabilized for now at about 0.0014 BTC (last price 0.001380000 at BTC-E) after touching 0.0013 yesterday. If we form a double bottom there, price could go up again ;) But trading volume seems a bit low to confirm this. Also, we have now an relatively decent ask wall at 0.00143 (32K coins).

I also think that fundamentals for now do not sustain another PPC rally. Stability at the actual levels would be good for now. When we have the new logo/website and (above all) develop an active marketplace at ppcoin.org or here, that would be the next fundamental "buy" signal.

Agreed. A market price for a stock or commodity reflects the best guess as to its long-term value. PPC development is still continually on-going, but the lack of big news in the last few weeks has likely led some investors to cash out and go explore some of the numerous alt-coins that continually pop up. I would suspect that we will be fairly stable at this price level in the near-term, and perhaps even a bit lower if new features (like an easily unlocked minting wallet or a proper website with consistent branding elements) don't materalize fast enough.

I also get the impression that more-so than other alt-currencies, PPCoin's early adopters are not as eager to cash out. That would be a good sign that the people holding the coins are invested in developing the financial infrastructure required to support a currency, rather than realizing short-term capital gains and moving on to the next alt currency.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 29, 2013, 07:09:34 am
Since this is the "wall observer" thread I think it's appropriate to ask how we can get the equivalent of bitcoinity/clarkmoody/bitcoinium/mtgoxlive/btccharts coded for PPC? Is the proofofstake.com guy here? Maybe he could do it.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 29, 2013, 09:14:00 am
What is the current PPC inflation rate? It seems like it's insanely high right now (5% per month or more). I don't know exactly where to see this but it looks like there are over 19 MM coins now and it wasn't that long ago there were only 18 MM.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on May 29, 2013, 04:48:04 pm
As I tried to answer your question, I saw that at BTER there is a strange PPC rally which drove price there to nearly 0.002 again. The other exchanges stay at 0.0014. Arbitrage opportunity? (Edit: The volume is extremely low there, so it might have no significance at all).

I thought first it could be related to possible fiat withdrawal problems at BTER but it doesn't seem so because other cryptos have normal values there.

Now to the inflation question:
- 19091421.341173 coins created until now (source: cryptocoinexplorer.com)
- ~ 405 coins per block reward / 10 min (source: coinchoose.com)
- daily increase of about 2430 coins/h * 24 = 58320 (PoW only)
- 30 day increase: 1749600 coins = ~ 9.1 % + 0.1 % stake minting? = ~ 9.2 %

Seems a very high inflation rate,
(misleading, so edited) but Litecoin is 2x older than PPC and has about 5 % monthly inflation rate at the moment. Even Bitcoin has nearly 1 % / month. Actually we Peercoiners are all early adopters :)

Taking into account the inflation, then there perhaps were not so many investors cashing out this month but miners selling with a slightly dropping buying interest drove the price down.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: sahkan on May 30, 2013, 12:52:42 am
Now to the inflation question:
- 19091421.341173 coins created until now (source: cryptocoinexplorer.com)
- ~ 405 coins per block reward / 10 min (source: coinchoose.com)
- daily increase of about 2430 coins/h * 24 = 58320 (PoW only)
- 30 day increase: 1749600 coins = ~ 9.1 % + 0.1 % stake minting? = ~ 9.2 %

I probably should not give out the PPC secrets, but since we are all PPC enthusiasts let's take a look at the real PPC economy:
I have read somewhere that PPC is intended to have 2 PoS blocks for each Pow block. The PoS blocks give rewards 1% per year in coin days, but the reward only goes to the block finder, therefore PoS will never really get to the 1% across the network as only the block finder gets the reward.
So let's examine reward blocks: PoS less than 1 PPC now and PoW around 400PPC so I took a quick one day snapshot of the following 2 blocks:
Timestamp                Total PPCs
5/29/2013 23:24   19094362
5/28/2013 23:21   19082812
For 1 day of combined PoS & PoW blocks a total of 11,550 was created
30 day total for this snapshot: 346,500 gives us 1.81% per month

and this is the main reason why people undervalue PPC, they don't understand the PoS&PoW blockchain concept and base their math on Bitcoin block creation:
25*6*24*30 which gives them  108,000 and then the crazy PPC counts: 400*6*24*30 = 1,728,000 plus the crazy monthly inflation of 1%/12 of 19M coins. And that's how PPC costs are low on the exchanges.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on May 30, 2013, 01:48:53 am
That's really interesting! Thanks for the explanation!
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on May 30, 2013, 02:14:11 am
Just noticed something interesting. Clark Moody has a PPC donate address on his bitcoin charting service. So far he's received just over 9 PPC. If PPC trading volume picks up do you think we can convince him to create a PPC livechart? http://ppc.cryptocoinexplorer.com/address/PQFNEjzKwwZBYXLU3ed2W7Xi2x76XK8L1S
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Gliss on May 30, 2013, 06:39:47 pm
Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I'm working on making longer term graphs for it.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on May 31, 2013, 11:46:57 pm
I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I'm right here)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MeBeingAwesome on June 01, 2013, 12:01:57 am
I think PPC price is about to bottom out and go up again.

Why? PPC had a drop in bids at BTC-E at really low levels yesterday (under 200 BTC), but now the bids are rising pretty fast again, for now they are at 240+ BTC. May be the turning point as people realize that PPC actually is cheap at these levels, compared with LTC (which has higher inflation as we saw in the last postings).

Possibly PPC will drop to 0.0011 or even 0.0010X BTC or 0.15 US$, but not lower. (Obviously I can be wrong, but I think I'm right here)

Agreed. Another part of the problem is that trading volumes are well below what they were in mid-to-late April, combined with a massive 100k sell wall I saw pop up yesterday. It's re-positioned at a few different levels, which I'm thinking might indicate a large holder is trying to drive the price down to purchase more. With such low trade volumes, those kind of ask walls can cause serious fluctuations in value.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 01, 2013, 04:31:22 am
This is from the price speculation thread on bitcointalk. Hopefully the conversation will move over here.

Quote from: Luckybit
Quote from: Sunny King

ppcoin currently has the lowest inflation rate (20~30% annual) among all altcoins, only second to bitcoin (~10% annual).


PPC does not have the lowest inflation rate. Where do you get that number?

Here are the facts I have. PPC has out inflated LTC and hasn't been around nearly as long. It produces around 411 coins per block. Bitcoin is at 25 coins per block. Litecoin is at 50 coins per block. Mincoin is at 2 coins  per block. As a result of epic growth PPcoin has 19 million coins in circulation to LTC's 18 million.

At this point in time it's not really a big deal because 19 million is low, but it's not the lowest inflation rate of all alt-coins based on the numbers I'm working with. I don't know where you get the values of 20% - 30% inflation, and how do you figure it's the lowest?

I know it's your coin so you're going to promote it but what we are seeing in the market are signals of a period of high inflation, and market cap shrinkage, which isn't a bad thing but don't convince people to invest heavy fiat into this coin when it's rise is truly uncertain. I await the figures backing up your claims.

...

More miners should raise the difficulty which should slow the inflation rate and that could happen as soon as ASICS ship.

I'm mining PPC. I predict someday each PPC will be worth $1 and when I mine I think of each PPC as $1. I also think the price of PPC will eventually go up, but the price of PPC will be correlated with the market cap just like it is with all coins and only when the market cap is brought up to a level above the total amount of PPC in circulation will we see PPC price at $1 and up.

This would mean PPC needs a market cap of $19 million or more. LTC has a market cap if $50 million but is selling at $2-3, Bitcoin has a market cap of over a billion and is selling at $100-130, let's see if PPC gets to a dollar when it's market cap is over $20 million, I predict that is what it will take and that is possible but probably not going to happen anytime soon. The only way it will happen is for you and others to set up sites where people can buy PPC directly with USD, not buy it with BTC or LTC. Then there has to be many sites set up for people to spend PPC. Finally there has to be some job sites for people to earn PPC.

Current PPC market cap is $ 3,137,639 and it just lost -7.97%. Unless the trend changes I expect the price to keep going down until a development in PPC changes the trend.

...

Supply is high and demand is low. I think this can change over a period of 6 months but the longer supply increases the bigger the market cap will have to be for each coin to be worth $1. So while I know PPC is worth something, and worth more than 0.003 in the long term and definitely worth more than it's going for right now, I don't know that it will ever reach $1.Since the poll is asking where I think it will be in the next 45 days I think right now there are signals that the price has to go down further before the slow climb back up so I think for another few weeks to a month we will see it dip down to 0.0010 and then 0.0007 and from there it will go back up. Because of this, if you're thinking about PPC as a short term investment it's a very bad time to buy PPC. Wait another couple of weeks when supply is increased even further and then buy as much as you can while it's at around 0.0007, if you buy right now you wont get the maximum amount of profits as a speculator.

I agree with much of Luckybit's read of the market. I think he's unaware that PPC targets 30 minutes per PoW block rather than every 10 minutes like many of the others. This is probably part of why Sunny says it has a lower inflation rate than most. Also 2 million PPC were produced in the first day. Obviously there hasn't been a day like that since. Nonetheless I think the downward trend may continue for a while. If you're trying to make a profit, not only does PPC need to beat fiat, it has to beat holding BTC and that's a tough thing to do until BTC reaches market saturation. I think there will come a day where the massive energy costs of the bitcoin mining machine cause its costs to exceed a more efficient currency like PPCoin. Hopefully the market factors it in well in advance of that point. However we're still a long ways from that scenario right now.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 01, 2013, 05:29:52 am
Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I'm working on making longer term graphs for it.

gliss I like your site. How do you decide which ones to track though? cryptocoincharts.info has a bunch that you don't so far though you seem to have most of the main ones. Maybe make a second page for all the ridiculously obscure coins so they don't annoy people loading the main page.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 03, 2013, 12:58:24 am
Market report for the end of sunday:

Bids at BTC-E continue growing (for now, 320 BTC), and asks are slowly declining. Bid/ask relation is still very low. But I still think we are at the (short-term) bottom or near.

Walls: 50.000 bid wall at 0.00116, 33.000 ask wall at 0.00128. Last trade BTC-E: 0.00124.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 03, 2013, 07:44:28 pm
Well the 50 BTC wall was nearly all eaten. Right now we have 30 BTC in bids at 0.00114. Last trade at 0.00122. I think we're going to continue to see a bear market in alts. PPC was one of the first to experience it so hopefully it will be one of the first to turn around but we'll have to wait and see. I feel like fair market value per PPC right now should be around $0.10 and right now we're at $0.15 so if we over correct to $0.08 that would take us back down near 0.00083 BTC as a potential bottom.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 04, 2013, 01:03:58 am
OK, a new low for BTC bids that I've seen: Total BTC bids: 185.38335102, current price 0.00116. The PoW block reward is up to 439.44 now. USD market cap: $2,712,560. I'm now looking for a USD market cap below $1,500,000.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 04, 2013, 03:22:49 pm
You are right, bids had recovered only temporary, now they are again in the 180-220 range.

At least I observed the bearish channel is now a bit flatter. When I see this confirmed I will try to draw a TA picture ;)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 04, 2013, 08:33:08 pm
There's a new tool for seeing PPC trades but for some reason the numbers in the chart don't seem accurate to me compared to what I see on btc-e? http://www.gobitgo.com/charts/?chartID=1049
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 04, 2013, 11:53:21 pm
Another new BTC bid low: Total BTC: 151.19154469, less asks too: 779003.33845226 PPC for sale. Last: 0.00115. Maybe people are shifting to Sunny's exchange from BTC-E?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Gliss on June 05, 2013, 05:15:37 am
Also I've been paying attention to the market cap (currently 26941 BTC ~ $3,400,000.00). I can't find a way to track the market cap directly in USD though?

Check out my site: http://coinmarketcap.com

I'm working on making longer term graphs for it.

gliss I like your site. How do you decide which ones to track though? cryptocoincharts.info has a bunch that you don't so far though you seem to have most of the main ones. Maybe make a second page for all the ridiculously obscure coins so they don't annoy people loading the main page.

I tracked the ones that were on a exchange with an available API.  I see cryptsy has recently added an API, so I will add those other coins shortly.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 05, 2013, 07:30:57 am
The number of registered users here is the thing that surprised me out of these. For comparison bitcointalk has 123940 members and the litecoin forum has 4164 members right now. We also briefly touched 0.00092 which is a low that hasn't been seen in a while.

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 839 Posts in 89 Topics by 2833 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00112000 BTC    407,094 PPC    472 BTC   0.00092000 BTC   0.00145000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00115295 BTC    30,552 PPC    36 BTC   0.00112100 BTC   0.00129870 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00106000 BTC    945 PPC        1 BTC   0.00106000 BTC   0.00120000 BTC
Bter        0.00124000 BTC    754 PPC         1 BTC   0.00112000 BTC   0.00124000 BTC   

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 799380.31975989
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 289.13135198

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)
51441   271793   437.92      0.00113319   21698

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,576,076   $ 0.13   19,147,905 PPC   -6.47 %
                           BTC price % change (24h)
                           -0.70 %

Sources:
http://ppcointalk.org/index.php
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/#jump-ppc-btc
https://btc-e.com/exchange/ppc_btc
http://dustcoin.com/mining
http://coinmarketcap.com/
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 05, 2013, 07:21:00 pm
Seems that yesterday was a bit of a rollercoaster ride (0.0009-0.0014). Was someone pumpin-and-dumping?

Today things seem to have stabilized a bit again. Price is 0.00115. Bids at BTC-E again a bit higher (300 BTC), but asks too are high (914K).
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: sahkan on June 05, 2013, 11:47:27 pm
Give it a week to move up as the BTC diff went up.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on June 06, 2013, 04:07:32 am
I believe PPC has a lot of room to move up. This extreme surge in bitcoin difficulty may ultimately help PPC. The ASICs have been let loose.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on June 06, 2013, 04:09:26 am
I believe PPC has a lot of room to move up. This extreme surge in bitcoin difficulty may ultimately help PPC. The ASICs have been let loose.

Of course PPC is susceptible to this as well, but it looks like the majority of ASIC owners are pointed at BTC right now.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 06, 2013, 07:08:29 am
I believe PPC has a lot of room to move up. This extreme surge in bitcoin difficulty may ultimately help PPC. The ASICs have been let loose.

Of course PPC is susceptible to this as well, but it looks like the majority of ASIC owners are pointed at BTC right now.

I was going to say PPC is made for ASICs. And ultimately that's a good thing. When the current rush is over you'll be able to buy USB ASIC mining sticks from Hong Kong for $5 - much cheaper than a GPU. Any particular trades people are making to take advantage of aberrations around difficulty change times? I'm thinking of something like a dividend capture strategy but not sure if there's enough of a pattern to be tradable.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 06, 2013, 10:20:58 am
We're over 3000 members here but I think most of them are spambots. Volume appears to be zero on two of the exchanges and 5 PPC on Bter. Looks like Sunny is still testing things out on the ppcoin.org/market right now. There's a iiping - iiping exchange listed.


Today's stats:
Forum Stats 854 Posts in 89 Topics by 3093 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00112000 BTC    189,059 PPC    209 BTC   0.00102000 BTC   0.00122000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00109301 BTC    17,222 PPC    20 BTC   0.00105263 BTC   0.00122200 BTC   
Bter   0.00112000 BTC    5 PPC    0 BTC   0.00102000 BTC   0.00129000 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC    0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   
Cryptsy   0.00106000 BTC    0 PPC    0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC


BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 909835.08815541
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 332.99742127

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
51631   285960   432.39   0.00112511   21568         106.20%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,619,221   $ 0.14   19,170,344 PPC   -1.85 %
BTC price % change (24h)
+0.61 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 07, 2013, 01:20:22 am
Thank you for the market report.

I have done a little research about the real PPC inflation rate and really it is the altcoin with the lowest inflation at the moment (except nearly-dead coins like BTE) and only a few % above BTC.

I've posted the analysis in the "PPCoin General discussion" section (http://ppcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240.0) and on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227395.0).
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 08, 2013, 10:17:21 am
The 82 BTC buy wall at 0.00105 has been eaten. We've touched 0.00100 a few times today. The 7 day chart on coinmarketcap.com is a very smooth decline in dollar terms. So far $35 has been raised for the logo design project. http://www.gofundme.com/ppcoinlogodesignfund

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 899 Posts in 94 Topics by 3586 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00104000 BTC    131,940 PPC   137 BTC   0.00100000 BTC   0.00113000 BTC   
Vircurex   0.00102101 BTC    34,773 PPC   35 BTC   0.00083000 BTC   0.00117000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00125000 BTC    632 PPC   1 BTC   0.00105000 BTC   0.00125000 BTC   
Bter      0.00119000 BTC    135 PPC      0 BTC   0.00031000 BTC   0.00119000 BTC   
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 902543.05686727
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 202.10563797

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
51968   275279   436.53   0.00105205   20195   104.14%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,195,110   $ 0.11   19,196,764 PPC   -9.49 %
BTC price % change (24h)
-6.02 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 08, 2013, 07:30:41 pm
BTC-E trollbox just announcing a PPC pump ;)

But be very careful. I will not increase my PPC position while pump is underway. Will place some bid orders near 0.001 or even lower when the dump happens, perhaps.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 09, 2013, 10:26:47 am
The logo design fundraiser is over 10% of the way to its goal now: $85/$800 collected. http://www.gofundme.com/ppcoinlogodesignfund
We were subjected to a minor trollbox pump today taking us from the day low of 0.00097 up to 0.00118 though it appears PPC is still much less susceptible to this kind of manipulation than others like FTC and CNC which experienced on the order of 50% moves today. Bitcoin has had a significant down day so it's nice to see PPC doing better in USD terms relatively.

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 911 Posts in 94 Topics by 3759 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00118000 BTC    382,256 PPC   418 BTC   0.00097000 BTC   0.00119000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00118888 BTC    9,514 PPC   11 BTC   0.00096103 BTC   0.00118888 BTC   
Bter   0.00117000 BTC    206 PPC   0 BTC   0.00037000 BTC   0.00117000 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00125000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 839844.01070689
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 299.60544262

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
52161   286062   432.36   0.00117033   22483   110.42%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,130,452   $ 0.11   19,211,194 PPC   -3.43 %
BTC price % change (24h)
-14.92 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 10, 2013, 09:45:16 am
Pretty crazy day today for cryptocoins in general but at least on the technical side PPC appears to have fared better than FTC which has been 51% attacked, all other miner's blocks orphaned and the chain replaced. Bitcoin has had some fairly large moves (24 hour range: $88.00 - $110.63). The PPC logo fundraiser is up to $90. A PPC giveaway has been started on bitcointalk and a few new people seem to be coming over here because of it. If these updates are helpful for you feel free to boost my karma over on the left.

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 938 Posts in 96 Topics by 3957 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e      0.00111000 BTC    333,943 PPC   385 BTC   0.00108000 BTC   0.00125000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00109992 BTC    12,797 PPC   15 BTC   0.00107000 BTC   0.00123999 BTC
Bter         0.00059000 BTC    241 PPC   0 BTC   0.00059000 BTC   0.00118000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00161000 BTC    40 PPC   0 BTC   0.00125000 BTC   0.00161000 BTC   
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 909967.2813875
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 331.76897974

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
52349   295786   428.76         0.00112498   21629   101.79%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,315,796   $ 0.12   19,226,820 PPC   +11.70 %
BTC price % change (24h)
+15.67 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 10, 2013, 01:30:19 pm
Nice update!

I am watching the FTC issue closely, although PoS coins like PPC (as I understand it) are way harder to attack.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: allbits on June 10, 2013, 01:59:56 pm
Anyone have any insight into how well PPC would withstand an attempted 51% attack as things stand today?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 10, 2013, 04:38:06 pm
Anyone have any insight into how well PPC would withstand an attempted 51% attack as things stand today?

Sunny has used checkpoints fairly extensively in the past to prevent double-spends and attacks. Don't know how often he does them currently.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: allbits on June 10, 2013, 05:45:32 pm
Is the current state of PoS sufficient to thwart an attack?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Excelsior on June 10, 2013, 05:58:13 pm
Your updates are awesome. Thank you for doing them.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on June 10, 2013, 06:27:25 pm
The more I know about PPC and read about the running attacks, the higher I appreciate the decisions of Sunny. The Check-Points, and the reasonably low inflation.

I know of course the disadvantages must be put into account and solved. It seems that PoS becomes more important by this time, and Check-Points can be removed (but better later than sooner).
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: allbits on June 10, 2013, 07:11:09 pm
Is there anyone out there that has a reasonably accurate technical knowledge of the state of the network and its vulnerability at this point of time?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: sahkan on June 10, 2013, 11:08:57 pm
Is there anyone out there that has a reasonably accurate technical knowledge of the state of the network and its vulnerability at this point of time?
http://ppcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0

In the second post Sunny is answering my concern about 51% PoS attack. The more coins are distributed the lesser chance of any successful attack, PoW attack cannot be executed at all without PoS and that's why I like PPCoin! ;)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 11, 2013, 10:05:38 am
The PPC price has hovered near 0.00114 all day today. Apparently PPCers don't much like Cryptsy or Bter for trading judging by their volume. We're hanging in there at #4 on the marketcap rankings between NMC at $3,255,997 and NVC at $998,018. Feathercoin is hovering just below at #6 with a $802,016 valuation after 2044 BTC was pushed into it just today! That's a lot of bitcoins buying a 51% attacked coin.
Bitcoin made another step towards mainstream significance today getting listed on the XE currency exchange site though you can't trade it there yet. http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=XBT&To=USD
On our forum here it looks like a bunch of the spambot members were pruned and I've been noticing a much lower level of spam posts. Great job mods!

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 952 Posts in 96 Topics by 3005 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00113000 BTC    63,495 PPC   72 BTC   0.00111000 BTC   0.00118000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00126000 BTC    1,804 PPC   2 BTC   0.00107991 BTC   0.00129900 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00160000 BTC    56 PPC   0 BTC   0.00090001 BTC   0.00160000 BTC
Bter   0.00097000 BTC    4 PPC   0 BTC   0.00097000 BTC   0.00097000 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC


BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 938221.19398269
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 302.47590791

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
52510   289122   431.21   0.00113624   21858   105.78%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,309,820   $ 0.12   19,239,056 PPC   -0.21 %
BTC price % change (24h)
-1.12 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 12, 2013, 06:06:37 pm
In the last days it seems the PPC/BTC exchange rate has stabilized at values between 0.00105 and 0.00115, with only occasional outbreaks, despite some pump-and-dump intents.

Some pics:

1-month-chart shows the stabilization and perhaps a triangle pattern about to close:
(http://imageshack.us/a/img507/2284/ppcbtc1m.png)

PPC-USD chart from Vircurex (low volume, but interesting):

(http://imageshack.us/a/img19/6957/ppcusd1206.png)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 18, 2013, 02:21:27 am
It seems we have bottomed out. The bearish channel was clearly broken:

(http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/7026/osaa.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/694/osaa.png/)

Now we need a lot of volume to confirm this. But I think it's a very good moment to buy.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on June 18, 2013, 03:10:40 am
It seems we have bottomed out. The bearish channel was clearly broken:

(http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/7026/osaa.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/694/osaa.png/)

Now we need a lot of volume to confirm this. But I think it's a very good moment to buy.

That giveaway thread on bitcointalk I opened took care of it  ;D

That's a joke of course...

I'd agree, good time to buy. I have a lot of confidence that we are seeing a price floor right now. There's certainly plenty of room to go up!
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 18, 2013, 08:02:59 am
Time for an update. A bunch of the spambot forum users were cleared out taking us below 1500 but the number of users seems to be going up awfully fast again. On BTC-E there's been a 350+ BTC bid at 0.00100 that appears and disappears - maybe it's the manipulator from the good old days of bitcoin? The fundraiser for the logo appears to have stalled out at $95. It might get some more traction if someone would agree to accept cryptocurrency donations and forward dollars to fundraiser. Sunny has posted a new weekly update but no word yet on pulling over the bitcoin 0.8.2 features yet. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114994.msg2501124#msg2501124 51% attacks against altcoins are becoming more common. These could keep all but the largest alts from being useful and were used to kill a few coins back in 2011. For PPC the threat will keep the necessity for checkpoints around for the near future. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236498.0 The MTGOX feature request now has 50 requests to add PPC trading. https://support.mtgox.com/entries/21676064-Please-Add-Peer-2-Peer-Coin-PPC- This compares to LTC with 184, FTC with 125, NMC with 56, TRC with 4, and CNC with 1.  The amount of interest in FTC continues to amaze me. Right now PPC is holding in a stability pattern just above 0.001. Bitcoin is right near $100 and hanging on. Seems like the markets are just catching their breath and waiting for a trigger before we'll see any significant action. As always if the update is informative feel free to boost my karma.

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 1121 Posts in 111 Topics by 2005 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00109000 BTC    43,448 PPC   48 BTC   0.00108000 BTC   0.00113000 BTC   
Vircurex   0.00110100 BTC    6,835 PPC   8 BTC   0.00109100 BTC   0.00112360 BTC   
Bter   0.00101000 BTC    290 PPC   0 BTC   0.00101000 BTC   0.00115000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00101001 BTC    129 PPC   0 BTC   0.00100001 BTC   0.00116660 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 889859.07324975
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 642.05302439

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
53712   343704   412.96   0.00109606   21183   101.87%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,168,773   $ 0.11   19,326,670 PPC   +0.52 %
BTC price % change (24h)
+2.27 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 18, 2013, 03:27:53 pm
The fundraiser for the logo appears to have stalled out at $95. It might get some more traction if someone would agree to accept cryptocurrency donations and forward dollars to fundraiser.

+ 11111 :D

@Topic: I am pleasantly surprised how PPC is holding its price level versus BTC fairly well, taking into account the recent price spike in BTC and the (probably related) crash of some other altcoins like FTC, CNC and TRC.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: D3tail on June 18, 2013, 10:27:14 pm
Logo project is fully funded now (or will be once the final BTC clears pending on my account).
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on June 18, 2013, 11:42:30 pm
Logo project is fully funded now (or will be once the final BTC clears pending on my account).

Excellent!

It will be great to get this squared away. No more confusion on what is the "official" logo.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: D3tail on June 18, 2013, 11:50:05 pm
Logo project is fully funded now (or will be once the final BTC clears pending on my account).

Excellent!

It will be great to get this squared away. No more confusion on what is the "official" logo.

Agreed, not that its the most important thing to happen in PPC, but it is movement and that's a positive and frankly once its out of the way we can move on to other projects.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MeBeingAwesome on June 19, 2013, 05:39:59 am
Big buy on Vircurex tonight pushed the price up to 0.00179000. Good sign!

(http://i.imgur.com/RbvwZX8.png)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 19, 2013, 07:53:09 pm
More buys at about 0.0019 at Vircurex - BTC-E slowly ascending too...

RALLY? ;)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 21, 2013, 11:36:00 am
Don't have time for a full update tonight but I've noticed that hashing power has increased to where we're once again just under 400 coins per pow block found. Reward 399.81.
Also PPC has gone up against BTC which is up at least on MTGOX on the news that they're entirely suspending USD withdrawals for two weeks. Meanwhile gold, silver, US treasuries, the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P and AUD and CAD are down for the day. Very impressive relative performance by PPC considering.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 22, 2013, 05:24:03 pm
After a pretty bullish Saturday morning (in my timezone) a large dump at BTC-E brought PPC value from 0.0013 temporarily back to 0.0010. Now it's at 0.00117 again, back in yesterday's price range. I have missed the buying opportunity :(

FTC and CNC have returned to their "normal" per-unit prices far below PPC's price. I have predicted it: it was a simple pump-and-dump game.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on June 23, 2013, 11:34:48 am
Things are looking strong on the mining front for PPC with the block reward down to 393 coins. It may be time for an update on our inflation rate vs. the other cryptos. MTGOX mentioned adding LTC in July and the price briefly soared. No mention of any other alts, even NMC which they've hinted at before. Our feature request now has 60 likes on there. https://support.mtgox.com/entries/21676064-Please-Add-Peer-2-Peer-Coin-PPC- Over at BTC-E the big news is the delisting of CNC causing it to drop 43%. There is a highly unsubstantiated rumor that PPC and FTC may also be in BTC-E's sights for delisting: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=240870.msg2554233#msg2554233
Sunny has added a basic trader ratings system to the PPC Marketplace though personally I hope he'll soon spend some time working on the cold locked wallet. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241054.0
Vircurex had a massive spike up which briefly brought prices up a bit on BTC-E but then there was a momentary drop which also bounced back. The overall is that in spite of comparatively lower volume than some of the other alts PPC appears fairly resilient and relatively stable. As always, thanks for your Karma votes!

Today's stats:
Forum Stats 1230 Posts in 125 Topics by 2978 Members.

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00115000 BTC    299,879 PPC   330 BTC   0.00100000 BTC   0.00130000 BTC   
Vircurex   0.00127900 BTC    52,356 PPC   77 BTC   0.00115000 BTC   0.00198900 BTC
Bter   0.00115000 BTC    969 PPC   1 BTC   0.00115000 BTC   0.00120000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00111000 BTC    134 PPC   0 BTC   0.00111000 BTC   0.00125840 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC   0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC

BTC-e Sell orders
Total PPC: 975817.00702146
BTC-e Buy orders
Total BTC: 316.05006977

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
54669   418304   393.17   0.00116695   22627   84.85%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,441,878   $ 0.13   19,390,345 PPC   -3.32 %
BTC price % change (24h)
-0.04 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 23, 2013, 03:16:11 pm
Quote from: calian
It may be time for an update on our inflation rate vs. the other cryptos.

I will update the stats at about June 26/27, then I will have the first complete monthly stat (May 27 - June 27) and 30-day-stat (May 27 - June 26).

Thanks for the market report! I hope the rumours of delisting PPC from BTC-E are not true. Vircurex has far too high withdrawal fees and the other PPC exchanges haven't the volume for reasonable trading. We need, although, a real PPC-to-USD and PPC-to-EUR exchange with real (not only VouchX and PerfectMoney etc.) fiat deposits and withdrawals. As I think that addition to MtGox will take at least some more months, it could be better to try to convince smaller exchanges to add PPC. I have thought about The Rock Trading, as they have already added LTC and have pretty good deposit options (SEPA, for example).
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on June 26, 2013, 01:54:04 am
Another big buy at Vircurex brought PPC to 0.0015 BTC for a while. Every day someone eats all asks up to 1,5 or 1,6 mBTC.

Are we seeing the first "smart money" investments?

What is strange though is that they are not buying at BTC-E, it would be cheaper for them.

Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on June 26, 2013, 02:20:42 am
The price difference is quite wide between the two exchanges. I did a little buying myself today (500 ppcoin) at btc-e for 0.00119

Now it looks like the price has dropped to 0.00116 there.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MUTO on June 26, 2013, 11:01:36 am
On BTC-E the buy wall between 0.00108 and 0.00116 gets higher and higher. It´s worth nearly 200k PPC currently. I expect the price to go up the next days. We will see  8)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: irritant on June 26, 2013, 08:12:09 pm
we'll see, what I noticed, on http://www.coinchoose.com/ the currency profitability chart, the stability of ppcoin. Although it just shows the last 48 hours, and maybe there are a few other currencies with an even flatter line, and it is just my opinion, not really based on facts just a feeling.
 
It looks pretty stable to me, and stability is good for when people want to start trading with it (and not just speculating).



Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on July 01, 2013, 04:04:21 am
0.00128 on BTC-e!

It looks to be rising
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on July 01, 2013, 08:36:17 pm
Yes, PPC is rising against Bitcoin (0.00141 now at BTC-E), but maintaining its value against the USD (0,11). This is a very good sign, as it appears that some have discovered PPC to hedge against BTC losses. LTC has been the choice of most people for this purpose in the past.

We'll see if there will be a PPC->BTC dump now that the dip in the 80s in BTC seem to have been passed, or if PPC maintains its value against BTC and rises against the USD.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MUTO on July 02, 2013, 07:25:31 am
Price just broke 0,0015 at BTC-E. I'm wondering why it goes up that much. I guess it could be as sunny planned it. Primecoin get's the people aware of PPC. Buy orders are currently worth about 700 BTC (yesterday about 300 BTC) I'm not sure weather or not the correction will again go below 0,0015. What do you guys think?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on July 02, 2013, 10:31:39 am
Time for a wall pic. Well actually just a btc-e chart since I'm unaware of an actual wall chart similar to mtgoxlive/bitcoinity for ppc.

(http://i.imgur.com/5938Ki0.gif)

We're once again in third place for total market cap below BTC and LTC both of which suffered significant down days in distinct contrast to PPC. It's interesting that the volume is not extremely high but the BTC bid is more than double what it's been recently. I have also been impressed with how little selling took place immediately following Sunny's announcement that he is debuting a new coin soon. It will be interesting to see if this momentum can be sustained bringing PPC into its rightful place as the many copycat clones of the altcoin world begin to exasperate many. As always your karma vote is much appreciated.

Today's stats:
1566 Posts in 146 Topics by 5267 Members

Market   Latest trade           Volume                Low                High
BTC-e   0.00164000 BTC    240,403 PPC    363 BTC   0.00133000 BTC   0.00170000 BTC
Vircurex   0.00163900 BTC    38,118 PPC    59 BTC   0.00130001 BTC   0.00163900 BTC
Bter   0.00167000 BTC    2,367 PPC    3 BTC   0.00136000 BTC   0.00167000 BTC
Cryptsy   0.00153100 BTC    1,711 PPC    2 BTC   0.00126100 BTC   0.00163900 BTC
Cryptonit   0.00144000 BTC    0 PPC    0 BTC   0.00000000 BTC   0.00000000 BTC

Sell orders
Total PPC: 800372.60853682

Buy orders
Total BTC: 732.54663574

Blocks   Difficulty   Reward (PoS)   Price (BTC)   Market cap (BTC)   Ratio vs. BTC
56207   401010   397.35   0.00164973   32113   139.50%

USD cap      Price (USD)   Total Supply   $ % change (24h)
$ 2,923,610   $ 0.15   19,465,815 PPC   +16.63 %
BTC price % change (24h)
-6.99 %
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on July 02, 2013, 11:34:26 pm
Nice support building up at 0.0015-0.00151. Price continues over 0.0016. And most important: Bid volume keeps high, above BTC 750 at BTC-E, and has surpassed the values of NMC and FTC.

Bear market is definitively gone, I think.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on July 03, 2013, 04:54:40 am
Nice support building up at 0.0015-0.00151. Price continues over 0.0016. And most important: Bid volume keeps high, above BTC 750 at BTC-E, and has surpassed the values of NMC and FTC.

Bear market is definitively gone, I think.

This looks great, bid volume has literally almost doubled in the past few days.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: FuzzyBear on July 03, 2013, 10:32:27 am
Nice support building up at 0.0015-0.00151. Price continues over 0.0016. And most important: Bid volume keeps high, above BTC 750 at BTC-E, and has surpassed the values of NMC and FTC.

Bear market is definitively gone, I think.

Awww but I liked my Fuzzy Market :P
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on July 03, 2013, 06:39:09 pm
Do you want to see WALLS? Here you go:

BTC-e http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=btc-e
Vircurex http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=vircurex
Cryptsy http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=cryptsy
Bter http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=bter
Cryptonit http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=cryptonit (this one confuses me)
Crypto-Trade http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/orderbook.php?pair=ppc-btc&market=crypto-trade
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: super3 on July 04, 2013, 02:22:55 am
On dustcoin we are the 3rd largest cryptocurrency.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on July 04, 2013, 09:30:34 am
I feel like we might have been part of a btc-e pump operation. There were 1800 BTC bid when the price was at 0.00220 and then it went down to only 800 bid with the price under 0.00200.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on July 04, 2013, 09:34:19 am
Volume for today on btc-e was an eye popping 1,400,019 PPC / 2,700 BTC. Vircurex did 54,972 PPC / 100 BTC while the others did less than 7 BTC each.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: super3 on July 04, 2013, 02:17:29 pm
I bought some since I plan on building a PPCoin app or two, and have some orders below a wall or two.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MUTO on July 05, 2013, 09:04:30 am
Wow, buy support is still growing. Now we are at over 1100 BTC Buy orders. Some days ago we were at 300 BTC. For me that means: There is only on direction!
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on July 08, 2013, 02:11:36 am
PPC peaked at just over .002 yesterday. Seems to be coming down slightly as BTC price rebounds. Currently at .00172
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: FuzzyBear on July 08, 2013, 04:17:38 pm
yup will be interesting to see how ppc does compared to trc in regard to the price spike from btc lows and dropping as btc back rising... i expect ppc price to drop less than trc and surpass it soon :)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on July 15, 2013, 01:46:23 pm
Seems that PPC is keeping its value in USD very well despite of the actual Bitcoin rally.

0.00163 now at BTC-E, 474 BTC of bids (5th place behind BTC, LTC, FTC and NMC) and 1187149 of asks.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: hellscabane on August 03, 2013, 06:21:12 am
Looks like we're breaking out of the 0.0014-0.00145 again.  Already at 0.00165.  Growth rate looks oddly familiar to a previous breakout.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on August 05, 2013, 05:26:18 pm
Yesterday a spike took place which drove PPC above 1,8 mBTC (0.0018 BTC). Now we are "back to normal" again with 1,4-1,5 mBTC.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on August 06, 2013, 02:57:48 am
Yesterday a spike took place which drove PPC above 1,8 mBTC (0.0018 BTC). Now we are "back to normal" again with 1,4-1,5 mBTC.

That worked out well, I had a 1LTC bet with a friend that was made on Friday. I declared FTC price was severely pumped and would fall below PPC value by Monday morning. He thought FTC would remain higher. +1 LTC for me  :)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: hellscabane on August 06, 2013, 07:48:50 pm
Looks like we're breaking out of the 0.0014-0.00145 again.  Already at 0.00165.  Growth rate looks oddly familiar to a previous breakout.
As clarification, I was referencing the price increase that occurred a month ago.  The curves look kinda similar; this time however, both amplitude and duration was shorter.  Some quick numbers: the pre-floor for the one in July was 0.00122 and post-floor was 0.00143 (crest at 0.002).  For this swing, the pre-floor was 0.00138 and post-floor looks to be 0.0145 (crest at 0.0185).  Oddly enough, volume on both crest days were around the same amount (~950k).

Any thoughts on this?  I would greatly appreciate different types of insight into this.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Excelsior on August 06, 2013, 07:54:33 pm
Isn't PPC going to explode in price if there's ever a successful 51% attack on BTC (because people will run to the safety of proof of stake)? Isn't such an attack kinda inevitable (given the reality of decreasing miners)? If so, when would such an attack occur (4 years? 7 years? 15 years from now?)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: craslovell on August 07, 2013, 02:57:12 am
Isn't PPC going to explode in price if there's ever a successful 51% attack on BTC (because people will run to the safety of proof of stake)? Isn't such an attack kinda inevitable (given the reality of decreasing miners)? If so, when would such an attack occur (4 years? 7 years? 15 years from now?)

Can happen any day someone feels like dropping 10+ million $ on asics and giving it a try  :P

There is just so much power, it's simply too much for one person to come in and bully the network.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MUTO on August 07, 2013, 09:33:50 am
Yes, too much for a person to invest and make the ASICs worthless after it. But for a gov which does not like cryptocoins it´s nothing.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: hellscabane on August 07, 2013, 03:24:16 pm
Yes, too much for a person to invest and make the ASICs worthless after it. But for a gov which does not like cryptocoins it´s nothing.
Although, a collaboration of people with a sizable amount of money could do that.  As far-fetched as it sounds, the group of people who manage to first create a efficient hashing ASIC with 20nm half-nodes (the lithography hasn't been done yet, but it's the next expected step), beat everyone to the punch, and create it successfully in the infancy of this lithographic geometry could do some significant damage.  The geometry could be fine-tuned by 2015, industrialized by 2016, and working tapeout by late 2016.

Of course we're talking about millions of dollars, and for a new geometry, it'd be classified as top-tier (at places like TSMC, GlobalFoundries, Renasas, and ON, their top tier BUs are at the minimum $100M).  So the biggest issue is how to either (a) recoup the money for a BU that decides to do this or (b) find a bunch of people to "waste" that much money.

tl;dr: Could happen by 2016, but someone would have to be willing to spend 10s, if not 100s of millions of dollars.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Excelsior on August 07, 2013, 08:56:01 pm
By then you'll be able to short Bitcoin on markets, so there's your incentive. This isn't probable in my opinion, this IS going to happen.

PPC is going to gain in value increasingly as people wake up to these realities and explode in popularity when the 'Great Bitcoin Crash' happens... in about 3 years from now.

Time to buy more ppc at these insanely affordable prices (and hold).  :)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: hellscabane on August 09, 2013, 05:22:50 am
By then you'll be able to short Bitcoin on markets, so there's your incentive. This isn't probable in my opinion, this IS going to happen.

PPC is going to gain in value increasingly as people wake up to these realities and explode in popularity when the 'Great Bitcoin Crash' happens... in about 3 years from now.

Time to buy more ppc at these insanely affordable prices (and hold).  :)
Hehe, looks like people are listening to this prudent advice.  Prices are stabilizing at a more sustainable upward trajectory.

(There is also good transfer velocity, no sure what the catalyst for this is, but increased velocity is definitely good for PPC.)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on August 28, 2013, 01:49:54 am
Time for a new micro-analysis :)

PPC is following BTC in it's current rally. Nearly all the other altcoins have lost value against BTC, including Primecoin.

The graph of the market cap in USD shows that since the dip at the beginning of June PPC has nearly doubled its price (in fiat) and is constantly growing, and in a very stable way (much more stable than BTC):

http://coinmarketcap.com/ppc_90.html

(Obviously you must rest the coin supply growth, but PPC inflation is below 2 % per month)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Excelsior on August 28, 2013, 03:18:37 am
Yeah, when I saw that I did a double take lol. Then again, I always knew PPC was the tortoise in this jack-rabbit game. As we speak, Sunny is working hard on taking it all to the next rung on the ladder. Slow and steady.

In the midst of all the trolling and hype in this world, shadowy investors are doing research and realizing, one at a time, that PPC is poised, by virtue of design and more, for greatness. They are, and will, invest accordingly.

We're behind you Sunny.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on August 28, 2013, 07:35:16 am
Yes I like this stability also, but nevertheless it will jump from time to time, more often up than down.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on September 09, 2013, 07:45:06 am
The last hours we had impressive buys and sells on btc-e in between 0.00150 BTC/PPC and 0.00158 BTC/PPC. It seems to me that someone wanted to manipulate the price down. There are some heavy anti-cyclical traders here, I enjoy this. Also bought some coins. It's now stable again at around 0.00155.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MeBeingAwesome on September 10, 2013, 04:39:40 am
When do we hit the tipping point? PPC is a very interesting currency to me, because most of its proponents/major holders seem to enjoy lurking quietly in the shadows,  building up their long-term PPC holdings gradually.

If the total supply of PPC is slowly being bought up by people who think it will one day be worth more than Bitcoin, what happens when the total tradable/liquid supply dips below demand? Do you expect a linear increase over time, or a sharp sigmoid-like s-curve upwards? The tipping point hasn't arrived, but it's also not as far off as we might think.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Excelsior on September 10, 2013, 05:47:39 am
It's only a matter of time. Checkpoint removal, upgrades, new serious investors streaming in (if only in shadows), new website, etc. These things will make a difference.

I do sense a tipping point as well. Coming closer.  :)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on September 10, 2013, 11:03:59 am
It's over one day that btc-e is making an update of their BTC wallet. Since then BTC can not be withdrawn nor deposited. This can have influence to the exchange rate, of course.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on September 10, 2013, 04:29:11 pm
btc-e is ready with BTC wallet update, fasten your seat belts.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: coolbeans94 on September 11, 2013, 08:32:42 am
PPC outperforming BTC now
(http://i.imgur.com/ZMutmXO.jpg)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on September 11, 2013, 09:22:16 am
The low graph: Where is it traded so high to the BTC?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on September 11, 2013, 01:02:39 pm
^^That was a little bubble at crypto-trade. Now there it's at 0,16, very close to BTC-E.

PPC is about to pass $0,20 and has a new 90-day market cap high: $ 4,050,119 at coinmarketcap.com.

Does someone remember the (market-cap) all-time-high? The PPC/BTC all-time-high was about 0.035, as I remember.

I think price will continue to grow after v0.4 will be released. For now, fundamental news are mostly good (e.g. two new exchanges offering PPC/USD).

----

PS: Was calculating a bit and market cap ATH was probably at April 6, when PPC/USD high was 0.00349 * ~ 140 USD BTC/USD * 18290000 coins, which gives me 8936494. So market cap ATH should have been between 8,8 and 9 million USD.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: coolbeans94 on September 23, 2013, 12:16:37 am
Here is a speculation chart for you:
(http://i.imgur.com/Vis7psO.jpg)

Interesting that PPC v0.4 is expected to be released on or about October 13th...(potential high point)?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on September 27, 2013, 08:52:31 am
We're up 8% against BTC today and market cap is brushing $4.5 million. Any news?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: MeBeingAwesome on September 28, 2013, 06:56:03 pm
We're up 8% against BTC today and market cap is brushing $4.5 million. Any news?

One big buyer has been jumping in over the last couple days. They're starting to spread out their buys more (first day or two they were buying big 50k+ blocks) to try and keep the price low, but it doesn't seem to be working. PPC up 19% today.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: whifmoi on September 28, 2013, 07:03:01 pm
It's not necessarily one big player. I believe there have been many strategic players in the past, and there are not enough free coins now. Small and medium players can make this rise now.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on September 30, 2013, 07:13:02 pm
New large buys at BTC-E collapsed the 0.002 BTC/PPC wall. PPC is now at 0.00214 at BTC-E, briefly touched 0.0022. PPC is now 30 USD-cents worth, like it was for most time in the bubble in April.

Very interesting is the bid/ask ratio which is pretty similar to that of LTC, although LTC has nearly 10 times the per-unit value than PPC.

PPC:

Ask: 541895.75 PPC / Bid: 1159.81 BTC

LTC:

Ask: 532733.44 LTC / Bid: 1417.63 BTC

Now: Is this a bubble / pump&dump or the long awaited upside correction? I think that long-term it will go up further, but for now possibly the rally is overheating a bit. Stay careful.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Alertness on September 30, 2013, 07:56:45 pm
Half of the PPC available for sale on BTC-E have been bought up in the last week, I'm surprised the price hasn't skyrocketed up even further.  In the last week, Sell orders dropped by about half, and Buy orders have more than tripped.

Btc-e is currently the main market maker for ppc, so basically half of the entire market for ppc was just bought up this weekend.

And since Sell orders are down, it means those coins that were bought up are not showing back up for sale again.

It could drop back down again like in the past, but I think this time it's different. PPC is beginning to establish itself, development is actively underway, people understand the coin better, therefore I believe this isn't your typical pump and dump, but is making an organic rise up from strategic investors, and people who have more solid belief in the coin overall. PPC should continue to gain momentum as time goes on, as people realize it actually has true value and benefits over and above BTC & LTC. I would not be surprised if PPC continues to rise. It strikes me as a similar comparison to where Bitcoin was in 2011-2012. We could see a spike to as high as $3.00 usd, then later a spike to $30.00 usd, just like Bitcoin did.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: calian on October 02, 2013, 09:20:49 am
I want to see more utility for ppcoin. Right now you can mostly use it to tip people. I want the equivalent of Bitmit, Gyft, Bitcoin ATM, etc. to support it.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 02, 2013, 09:01:12 pm
^^ Fully agree.

By the way, PPC was the only one of the larger coins not affected by the "Silk Road crash". See http://coinmarketcap.com.

What is strange that Litecoin did even worse than bitcoin. In the past it used to be the main "hedge altcoin" against BTC crashes.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 05, 2013, 12:24:31 am
Very bullish day today. PPC got near the record high of 0.0035 from April. But there is harsh resistance at this price level :)

What is very interesting is that the ask volume is drying out. At BTC-E there are only 180.000 to 250.000 PPC left. The bid/ask level is now much more favorable than that of LTC.

Can PPC healthily stabilize on this price level or will it be more like a rollercoaster?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Alertness on October 05, 2013, 02:09:01 am
PPC has been gaining about .0005/BTC per day pretty steadily on high volume. If PPC breaks .004/BTC it could easily go to over .01/BTC. PPC is testing the market right now, before going onto new all-time highs. Some have been claiming it is being pumped and manipulated, but if you study the volume, it is broken up very randomly, so it could actually be more of an genuine growth than some people realize. PPC may actually be nearing escape velocity. From a micro-transaction standpoint, PPC is still valuable over $3/USD...possibly as high as $30/USD to be comparable with the transaction fees of Braintree https://www.braintreepayments.com/ (https://www.braintreepayments.com/)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 05, 2013, 12:31:26 pm
Now it's official: PPC has reached a new all-time-high at 0.043!1

Obviously, now many people are taking profits and so the price has decreased a little bit. That's completely normal. The important thing is that the resistance at 0.0035 was broken.

I think it will stabilize now at 0.0025-0.003 and then go up again, when the conditions (new client etc.) are there.

1Last "real" ATH was 0.0035 and about 0.50 USD. I am not counting the mini-bubble at the start of PPC at BTC-E which drove price above 0.01 there, because it was only for a very short period and not reflected at the other exchanges.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 05, 2013, 01:28:08 pm
More: Last 24 h  6051 BTC were traded for PPC at BTC-E. This is more than 700000 USD and half the volume of MtGox BTC/USD!

See http://cryptocoincharts.info - PPC/USD was the second trading pair after BTC/USD.
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Alertness on October 05, 2013, 08:25:53 pm
Look at the volume.

More BTC traded for PPC on BTC-e than BTC traded for USD on Mt.Gox or Bitstamp and BTC-e combined

(http://i.imgur.com/fKmREwX.png)
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Alertness on October 07, 2013, 07:49:32 am
(http://i.imgur.com/kJqoniR.png)

Blue line = Possible new resistance level?

Green line = Looks like prior resistance level has been blown.

Red line = Estimated strong support level.

Could the green line be emerging as the new support level?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 08, 2013, 12:44:09 am
I think the green line goes up too fast. We had a little correction now, but I think price must stabilize (I think about 0.003 BTC / 0,40 USD) before a new price spike.

What surprises me is the insanely high bid sum at BTC-E (Total: 12315.82 BTC). I don't know if this is a bug of the website, as it's about 10 times the "normal" level in this rally and I don't see that sums at the order book. Is there a possibilty to view the whole order book of BTC-E?
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: coolbeans94 on October 08, 2013, 04:02:49 am
Agreed. Price spiked so high so fast, it had to come down. - But, it is starting to look more reasonable now. PPC is going to go up, but it's not going to go up 15% per day, every day!

(http://i.imgur.com/i4c4rUN.jpg)

Right now I think we are starting to get to "panic/capitulation" you can tell by monitoring the troll box at BTC-e :P

BTW: Isn't this number already past the debt limit?
(http://i.imgur.com/xeehTcQ.jpg)
 ...You just realized how much the American people (and the world) are really getting played.
(http://i.imgur.com/xbLHXI1.jpg)
Just a bunch of actors.
(http://i.imgur.com/jWW11GA.jpg)

2Timothy 3:12-15  "Yea, and all that will live godly in Christ Jesus shall suffer persecution. But evil men and seducers shall wax worse and worse, deceiving, and being deceived. But continue thou in the things which thou hast learned and hast been assured of, knowing of whom thou hast learned them; And that from a child thou hast known the holy scriptures, which are able to make thee wise unto salvation through faith which is in Christ Jesus."
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: Alertness on October 10, 2013, 06:19:13 am
(http://i.imgur.com/rBf5pS6.png)

We are now at the convergence of both an uptrend and a downtrend. Downtrend momentum seems to be petering out, volume is still healthy. I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate the price to either stabilize here, or go up. I don't believe the downtrend has much more steam. Also impressive is that in the last day BTC has been increasing relative to USD, and PPC is holding up.  Now let's look at the order book:


(http://i.imgur.com/4dDurSI.png)

Order book looks like it is healthy with plenty of diversified buy orders. I'm speculating a rise within 3 days over .0032

(http://i.imgur.com/i4c4rUN.jpg)
BTC-e troll box has been relatively quiet about PPC lately: Looks like we may have finally reached "despondence".
Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: d5000 on October 11, 2013, 04:12:36 pm
That's a very short-term interpretation of this "bubble lifecycle" graph :)

Perhaps this "downtrend" is a classic Fibonacci retracement? I'm not very good at math ...

I think also PPC will stabilize now, or slightly go up. At BTC-E the ask volume is descending with a stable (although artificially inflated) bid volume, which is a good sign for bulls.


Title: Re: Wall Observer - The PPC Speculation Thread
Post by: coolbeans94 on October 12, 2013, 08:58:19 am
(http://i.imgur.com/FivVO36.jpg)

PPC could resume its rise on a more linear-uptrend. It had a strong linear up-trend until it got pumped into going exponential. It has now come down to where it should be for a more linear rise. The "dump" phase is now over.

(http://i.imgur.com/9PIeuvF.jpg)
                                                 We could be here!